Free to Read: Trump to Turn U.S. Global Strategy to Focus More on China, Experts Say

Beijing should prioritize its economy and broader objectives for a multipolar world and not launch equal countermeasures, Chinese foreign policy scholars say

Outside a mall in Beijing, a screen shows Republican candidate Donald Trump’s speech Wednesday after he was declared the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Photo: VCG

As U.S. president-elect Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in office, some Chinese foreign relations experts anticipate the new administration’s global strategy to narrow and focus more on China, predicting a potential shift of resources from allies toward countering Beijing.

In the lead up to Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, experts suggest Beijing avoid mirroring the U.S. with retaliatory action such as higher tariffs and other restrictive measures. Instead, China should prioritize strengthening its economy and pursue broader objectives of a multipolar world.

“The U.S. clearly realizes that its long-term strategic competitor is China,” said Zhao Hai, director of the international politics department at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, during an interview with Caixin.

【Subscribe now and unlock more Sino-US relation insights from Caixin! 40% off now!】

Zhao believes that the president-elect’s administration’s global perspective may contract to focus more on China, where it may try to maintain support for its allies at the lowest possible cost in areas such as Europe and the Middle East to redirect resources to target China.

Although China and the U.S. have maintained a certain level of stability through different working groups and dialogue mechanisms during the Biden administration, these channels have not played a sufficient role in “changing the U.S.’ perception of China,” Zhao said.

China’s rapid rise, especially in technological innovation, will also prompt the U.S. to increase restrictive measures, including exerting more pressure on allies to contain China, Zhao added.

Under a framework where the U.S. sees China as a challenge and U.S.-China trade relations as doing more harm than good, Zhao expects competition between the two countries to intensify and potential further decoupling in high-tech fields.

On China’s response to potential tariff increases and other restrictions, Jia Qingguo, professor and former dean of the School of International Relations at Peking University, believes that China should not follow Trump’s lead by countering with equal measures, but to continue doing what is in its own best interests and advocate for more technological exchanges.

Along the same line, Zhao said the best response for Beijing is to take care of its own development first, such as economic growth, while building its global strategy toward a multipolar world order, compelling Washington to adjust its policy toward China.

Meanwhile, if Trump continues his “America first” principle and strong protectionist stance that were evident during his first term from 2017 to 2020, it could lead to changes in U.S.’ external trade relations with countries in the Global South as well as other developed countries.

“In such circumstances, we may find new opportunities for cooperation in regions like Europe, Japan and South Korea, Mexico, Canada, as well as Latin America, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa,” Zhao said.

Scott Kennedy, senior adviser in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, believes Trump’s future China policy could take various forms — if Trump enacts his proposed tariffs and expands tech restrictions, it would be harmful to China’s economy, while a “dealmaker Trump” could bring a more constructive stability to U.S.-China relations.

Kennedy told Caixin he expects little change on the Taiwan issue from the Trump administration, noting that the U.S. has largely maintained a consistent policy toward Taiwan since the Shanghai Communique signed in 1972, when the U.S. acknowledged that “all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.”

The election outcome is only the first step in determining future U.S. foreign policy direction, Kennedy said, adding that clearer indications will emerge once Trump takes office in January and appoints his policy team.